September 2026 Market Update - US Treasury Bonds

Market Summary Rotation out of the tech sector continued throughout July which held down the major market indices. The S&P 500 actually ended July slightly in the green with a 0.06% gain while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index pulled back -5.19%. The small cap Russell 2000 index also pulled back losing -2.74%. The bond market continued to experience pullbacks as well with the 30-year Treasury yield trading firmly above 5%. (1) The first few days of August saw sharp reversals wi

Market Summary While optimism grew surrounding a U.S.-Iran agreement and ceasefire talks, bringing a temporary sigh of relief to energy markets, the broader stock market underwent a massive internal rotation. The heavy concentration in mega-cap technology and AI-related infrastructure paused, as investors heavily took profit and rotated into cyclical, value, and small-cap names. There were illusions of progress with the Iran war that were ultimately proved to be just another

Market Summary While the Iran war stagnated last month, the markets took the opportunity to ignore interest rate risk, oil prices, an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, and rising inflation to instead focus on the AI narrative once again with the tech and semiconductor sectors outperforming the rest of the market. Bonds continued their selloff almost across the board, dragging total returns for traditional portfolio allocations on fears that rising interest rates due to in

Market Summary We concluded in last month’s newsletter hours before President Trump’s deadline that threatened to bomb Iran’s civil infrastructure. The stock market reaction was going to be binary – more volatility if those threats were realized, or a fast and furious rally to the upside if Trump backed down. The answer was the latter with the S&P 500 gaining 10.43%, the Nasdaq 100 rallying 15.63%, and the Russell 2000 rising 12.18%. The bond market as a whole struggled last

Market Summary March brought heightened volatility to financial markets as investors reacted to a combination of weaker labor data, persistent inflation concerns, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Equity markets experienced uneven performance throughout the month, with early declines followed by partial recoveries as investors reassessed the path of monetary policy. For the month, the S&P 500 lost -5.13%, the Nasdaq 100 pulled back -5.01%, and the Russell

Market Summary February brought another month of volatility within roughly the same trading ranges as investors balanced moderating inflation data with rising geopolitical risks and growing concerns about the labor market. Equity markets moved unevenly during the month, with technology stocks facing periodic selling pressure while energy shares rallied alongside rising oil prices. Markets were also influenced by a combination of economic releases and Federal Reserve commentar

Market Summary January saw U.S. equities rebound modestly despite bouts of volatility tied to economic data delays, policy expectations, and geopolitical headlines. Markets were choppy mid-month after tariff-related headlines triggered selling in technology stocks, but sentiment recovered late as rate expectations stabilized. On a full-month basis, the S&P 500 gained 1.34%, the Nasdaq 1.19%, and the Russell 200 5.36%. Investors rotated away from mega-cap tech and toward cycli

Market Summary December closed out a volatile finish to 2025, with U.S. equities digesting mixed macro data, shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, and geopolitical and political headlines. Investors wrestled with late-cycle growth signals, AI sector leadership pressures, and renewed rate-cut speculation into year-end. For the month, the S&P 500 ended up closing nearly flat with a small loss of -0.05%, the Nasdaq 100 closed lower at -0.73%, and the Russell 2000 lagged