Recent Posts

November Economic Update

Market Summary

October lived up to its reputation for volatility as the S&P 500 experienced its second correction of the year, leaving Wall Street wondering if these are the early signs of a peaking business cycle. The reasons for the pullback are numerous: moderating corporate earnings, the potential impact of higher interest rates, a softening housing market, and the ever-present threat of tariffs.

On the plus side, domestic economic data reported in October ranged from middling to excellent and consumer spending / confidence indicators rose for the month. Also, as of this writing the market has regained nearly half of its recent pull back, keeping us positive on the S&P 500 year-to-date. (1)

Real Estate

One of the few weak spots of economic data was within the real estate sector, which sometimes is an early indicator of a weakening business cycle; specifically when home sales and groundbreaking begin to taper off. The jury is out as to whether this is currently happening or if the housing market is simply seeing a temporary slump after years of rising home prices. (2-4)

The National Association of Realtors announced a 3.4% retreat for resales in September, and projected a 1.6% decline in existing home sales for all of 2018. A Census Bureau report showed the rate of new home buying weakened 5.5% in the first three quarters of this year. As for residential construction activity, further Census Bureau data had housing starts down 5.3% for September. Among the possible contributors for a slowing real estate market were rising interest rates, where we saw the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rise from 4.72% to 4.86%. (2-5)

Looking Forward...

If the pattern that we’ve seen thus far continues until the end of this year, 2018 will be best-known for its large trading ranging and sideways movement. Since the beginning of the year, we have seen prolonged rallies to the upside, followed by sudden corrections to the downside. All-in-all, we’ve been everywhere - and yet nowhere. We are currently not in a “bull” or “bear” market, but rather the less commonly used term “dear” market. The market is symptomatic of being pulled in different directions by different forces. On one hand, the bears point out tariffs, mid-term elections, and rising interest rates which may keep the market down. On the other hand, bulls praise economic data which shows little sign of weakening, strong corporate earnings, and benefits from personal and corporate tax cuts which still may not be priced into the market. Fortunately, we are in the midst of the fourth quarter, which has historically has seen the largest gains of the year. October held up to its statistic as being the most volatile, and now we will see if November and December live up to their end of the deal. As always, we are continually keeping a pulse on economic and market conditions as they develop.

Monthly Financial Tip:

Some travelers routinely buy car rental insurance. That may not be necessary, because most personal auto insurance policies and some credit cards provide rental car coverage. Consumers should ask their insurer or card issuer just what is covered before they arrange a rental vehicle.


1 - [10/29/18]

2 - [10/19/18]

3 - [10/29/18]

4 - [10/30/18]

5 - [10/31/18]

This post has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bob Lawson is not engaged in rendering legal or accounting services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All indices are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment.

Financial Plan | Personalized Report | Financial Advisor - Minneapolis

Barrington's Financial Blog

About   |    Our Services   |    Financial Planning   |    Employer Retirement Plans   |    Contact

Litigation Support   |    Expert Witness   |    Pro Bono Services   |    Five Star Wealth Manager   |    Careers       

Barrington Capital Management, Inc.

3800 American Blvd West   |   Suite 1500

Bloomington, MN  55431

952-835-1000   |    800-741-0704


Barrington Capital Management, Inc. only conducts business in states and jurisdictions where it is registered or where an exemption from registration exists. This site and its contents do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to sell securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This website is for informational purposes only and Barrington Capital Management, Inc. reserves the right to modify it at any time without notice. Copies of Barrington Capital Management Inc.’s Form ADV Part 2 are available upon request. Images and photographs are included for the sole purpose of visually enhancing the website. No photographs are of current or former clients and they should not be construed as an endorsement or testimonial from any of the persons in the photograph.

All materials used on this site, including all images, are copyrighted and are protected worldwide by copyright laws and treaty provisions. They may not be copied, reproduced, modified, published, uploaded, posted, transmitted, or distributed in any way, without Barrington Capital Management Inc.'s prior written permission.

Neither Barrington Capital Management, Inc., nor any of their Investment Adviser Representatives, provide tax or legal advice. Tax and legal advice should only be obtained from a qualified professional. All written content on this site is for informational purposes only. All information and ideas should be discussed in detail with an advisor prior to implementation. Examples from our news feeds, blogs or articles do not take into consideration commissions, investment management fees, miscellaneous transaction fees, tax considerations, or margin requirements, which are factors that may significantly affect the economic consequences of a given strategy. Investors should review transaction costs, margin requirements and tax considerations with their financial or tax advisor before entering into any investment or financial planning strategy. Material presented is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representations as to its accuracy or completeness.

Investment Advisory services are offered by Barrington Capital Management, Inc., a Registered Investment Adviser in the states of Minnesota and Texas. Barrington Capital Management, Inc. may utilize the services of First Ascent Asset Management, LLC for certain investment portfolios. Insurance products and services are also offered through Barrington Capital Management, Inc.

Disclosure: Barrington Capital Management, Inc. is not a law firm. Robert D. Lawson and his associates are not practicing attorneys. The scope of any activities performed by Robert D. Lawson, subcontractors or employees of Barrington Capital Management, Inc. is limited to litigation consulting and litigation support.​

By using this website, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. View our Business Continuity Plan.

Copyright © 2021 Barrington Capital Management, Inc.

A Registered Investment Adviser  |  All Rights Reserved